Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature

Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations

Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##    denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1    Barletta-Andria-Trani         358  3.68         5.92       0.92
## 2                  Sondrio        1012  2.85         4.76       5.59
## 3                   Novara        2123  2.45         4.68       5.75
## 4             Sud Sardegna          89  2.34         3.49       0.25
## 5                  Venezia        2279  1.94         4.02       2.67
## 6            Caltanissetta         141  1.45         2.17       0.54
## 7                   Ragusa          72  1.43         2.86       0.22
## 8                   Chieti         648  1.40         5.71       1.68
## 9                   Savona         997  1.36         3.85       3.61
## 10                   Lecce         461  1.26         1.99       0.58
## 11                Vercelli        1013  1.14         2.43       5.93
## 12             Alessandria        3008  1.13         3.76       7.14
## 13                 Taranto         249  1.09         2.05       0.43
## 14                  Torino       11024  1.09         3.90       4.88
## 15                  Foggia         933  1.06         4.13       1.50
## 16                  Biella         833  1.01         3.09       4.74
## 17                  Matera         181  0.94         2.26       0.91
## 18                    Como        2681  0.91         3.43       4.47
## 19                 Ferrara         833  0.87         3.48       2.41
## 20                Avellino         434  0.86         1.40       1.04
## 21      Reggio di Calabria         247  0.82         1.65       0.45
## 22                  Verona        4164  0.74         2.31       4.49
## 23                 Imperia        1186  0.73         2.60       5.55
## 24                   Cuneo        2184  0.69         2.78       3.72
## 25                 Mantova        2977  0.68         1.50       7.22
## 26      Reggio nell'Emilia        4437  0.65         1.56       8.34
## 27                 Cosenza         426  0.63         2.16       0.60
## 28                    Lodi        2787  0.54         1.31      12.11
## 29                   Pavia        3798  0.54         2.51       6.96
## 30                Piacenza        3533  0.51         2.11      12.30
## 31           Ascoli Piceno         273  0.49         0.74       1.32
## 32                  Milano       17000  0.49         2.91       5.23
## 33                 Vicenza        2433  0.48         1.80       2.82
## 34                 Treviso        2386  0.48         1.49       2.69
## 35                 Sassari         804  0.42         0.75       1.64
## 36                 Palermo         427  0.39         1.18       0.34
## 37               Frosinone         542  0.36         1.69       1.11
## 38                Macerata         946  0.35         1.50       3.01
## 39                   Prato         479  0.35         1.27       1.86
## 40                   Parma        2973  0.34         2.20       6.58
## 41              Campobasso         215  0.31         0.94       0.97
## 42                  Teramo         632  0.26         0.96       2.05
## 43                    Roma        4257  0.21         1.62       0.98
## 44                 Perugia         981  0.20         0.41       1.49
## 45                 Brescia       12178  0.18         0.83       9.62
## 46                 Firenze        2760  0.18         2.07       2.73
## 47                   Udine         929  0.18         0.87       1.76
## 48                   Lecco        2109  0.17         0.76       6.25
## 49                  Rimini        1874  0.17         1.19       5.53
## 50                 Trieste        1136  0.14         0.98       4.84
## 51                    Bari        1188  0.12         2.41       0.95
## 52                   Rieti         282  0.12         0.36       1.81
## 53                  Genova        3937  0.09         2.13       4.68
## 54                  Varese        2302  0.09         2.27       2.58
## 55                 Gorizia         149  0.08         4.20       1.07
## 56    Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         951  0.07         0.63       6.01
## 57                 Livorno         494  0.07         0.41       1.48
## 58                 Bergamo       10848  0.06         0.56       9.73
## 59                  Padova        3751  0.05         0.81       4.00
## 60         Pesaro e Urbino        2366  0.04         0.81       6.59
## 61                  Napoli        2263  0.04         1.62       0.73

Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##           denominazione_provincia totale_casi trend daily_growth per_capita
## 1                       Catanzaro         197  0.00         0.00       0.55
## 2                         Crotone         117  0.00         0.00       0.67
## 3                   Vibo Valentia          71  0.00         0.00       0.44
## 4                       Benevento         170  0.00         0.00       0.61
## 5                           Nuoro          74  0.00         0.00       0.35
## 6                       Agrigento         132  0.00         0.00       0.30
## 7                         Trapani         135  0.00         0.00       0.31
## 8                        Grosseto         389 -0.01         0.78       1.76
## 9  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1095 -0.03         0.18       8.71
## 10                        Catania         886 -0.09         4.11       0.80
## 11                        Ravenna         941 -0.11         0.43       2.42
## 12                         Modena        3472 -0.13         0.67       4.92
## 13                       L'Aquila         238 -0.14         0.00       0.80
## 14                        Pistoia         583 -0.14         1.39       1.99
## 15                          Lucca        1221 -0.17         0.49       3.15
## 16                         Trento        3646 -0.18         0.89       6.74
## 17                        Viterbo         357 -0.19         0.56       1.13
## 18                        Bologna        3917 -0.21         1.35       3.86
## 19          Monza e della Brianza        4253 -0.25         1.00       4.87
## 20                Bolzano / Bozen        2416 -0.25         0.25       4.55
## 21                           Enna         378 -0.27         0.27       2.29
## 22                          Fermo         399 -0.27         1.01       2.30
## 23                          Terni         331 -0.30         0.00       1.47
## 24                          Siena         412 -0.33         0.24       1.54
## 25                        Caserta         404 -0.34         0.25       0.44
## 26                   Forlì-Cesena        1454 -0.36         0.55       3.68
## 27                       Brindisi         512 -0.44         1.39       1.30
## 28                      Pordenone         599 -0.45         0.00       1.92
## 29                      La Spezia         793 -0.48         0.63       3.61
## 30                         Arezzo         587 -0.50         1.21       1.71
## 31                        Salerno         641 -0.57         1.26       0.58
## 32                        Cremona        5706 -0.60         1.15      15.90
## 33                         Ancona        1764 -0.66         0.23       3.74
## 34                        Isernia          51 -0.66         0.00       0.60
## 35                         Latina         451 -0.67         0.00       0.78
## 36                  Massa-Carrara         957 -0.75         0.10       4.91
## 37                       Cagliari         228 -0.78         0.88       0.53
## 38                           Pisa         818 -0.82         0.86       1.95
## 39                         Rovigo         400 -0.94         8.40       1.70
## 40                        Potenza         173 -0.98         0.00       0.47
## 41                        Messina         515 -1.35         0.39       0.82
## 42                        Pescara        1215 -1.46         2.10       3.81
## 43                           Asti        1255 -2.11         3.55       5.85
## 44                       Siracusa         197 -2.68         0.00       0.49
## 45                        Belluno         979 -3.34         1.24       4.82
## 46                       Oristano          52 -7.38         0.00       0.33

Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100

Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.

##         denominazione_provincia totale_casi per_capita_rate pos
##                         Cremona        5706           15.90   1
##                        Piacenza        3533           12.30   2
##                            Lodi        2787           12.11   3
##                         Bergamo       10848            9.73   4
##                         Brescia       12178            9.62   5
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1095            8.71   6
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4437            8.34   7
##                         Mantova        2977            7.22   8
##                     Alessandria        3008            7.14   9
##                           Pavia        3798            6.96  10
##                          Trento        3646            6.74  11
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2366            6.59  12
##                           Parma        2973            6.58  13
##                           Lecco        2109            6.25  14
##            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         951            6.01  15
##                        Vercelli        1013            5.93  16
##                            Asti        1255            5.85  17
##                          Novara        2123            5.75  18
##                         Sondrio        1012            5.59  19
##                         Imperia        1186            5.55  20
##                          Rimini        1874            5.53  21
##                          Milano       17000            5.23  22
##                          Modena        3472            4.92  23
##                   Massa-Carrara         957            4.91  24
##                          Torino       11024            4.88  25
##           Monza e della Brianza        4253            4.87  26
##                         Trieste        1136            4.84  27
##                         Belluno         979            4.82  28
##                          Biella         833            4.74  29
##                          Genova        3937            4.68  30
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2416            4.55  31
##                          Verona        4164            4.49  32
##                            Como        2681            4.47  33
##                          Padova        3751            4.00  34
##                         Bologna        3917            3.86  35
##                         Pescara        1215            3.81  36
##                          Ancona        1764            3.74  37
##                           Cuneo        2184            3.72  38
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1454            3.68  39
##                       La Spezia         793            3.61  40
##                          Savona         997            3.61  41
##                           Lucca        1221            3.15  42
##                        Macerata         946            3.01  43
##                         Vicenza        2433            2.82  44
##                         Firenze        2760            2.73  45
##                         Treviso        2386            2.69  46
##                         Venezia        2279            2.67  47
##                          Varese        2302            2.58  48
##                         Ravenna         941            2.42  49
##                         Ferrara         833            2.41  50
##                           Fermo         399            2.30  51
##                            Enna         378            2.29  52
##                          Teramo         632            2.05  53
##                         Pistoia         583            1.99  54
##                            Pisa         818            1.95  55
##                       Pordenone         599            1.92  56
##                           Prato         479            1.86  57
##                           Rieti         282            1.81  58
##                           Udine         929            1.76  59
##                        Grosseto         389            1.76  60
##                          Arezzo         587            1.71  61
##                          Rovigo         400            1.70  62
##                          Chieti         648            1.68  63
##                         Sassari         804            1.64  64
##                           Siena         412            1.54  65
##                          Foggia         933            1.50  66
##                         Perugia         981            1.49  67
##                         Livorno         494            1.48  68
##                           Terni         331            1.47  69
##                   Ascoli Piceno         273            1.32  70
##                        Brindisi         512            1.30  71
##                         Viterbo         357            1.13  72
##                       Frosinone         542            1.11  73
##                         Gorizia         149            1.07  74
##                        Avellino         434            1.04  75
##                            Roma        4257            0.98  76
##                      Campobasso         215            0.97  77
##                            Bari        1188            0.95  78
##           Barletta-Andria-Trani         358            0.92  79
##                          Matera         181            0.91  80
##                         Messina         515            0.82  81
##                         Catania         886            0.80  82
##                        L'Aquila         238            0.80  83
##                          Latina         451            0.78  84
##                          Napoli        2263            0.73  85
##                         Crotone         117            0.67  86
##                       Benevento         170            0.61  87
##                         Isernia          51            0.60  88
##                         Cosenza         426            0.60  89
##                         Salerno         641            0.58  90
##                           Lecce         461            0.58  91
##                       Catanzaro         197            0.55  92
##                   Caltanissetta         141            0.54  93
##                        Cagliari         228            0.53  94
##                        Siracusa         197            0.49  95
##                         Potenza         173            0.47  96
##              Reggio di Calabria         247            0.45  97
##                   Vibo Valentia          71            0.44  98
##                         Caserta         404            0.44  99
##                         Taranto         249            0.43 100
##                           Nuoro          74            0.35 101
##                         Palermo         427            0.34 102
##                        Oristano          52            0.33 103
##                         Trapani         135            0.31 104
##                       Agrigento         132            0.30 105
##                    Sud Sardegna          89            0.25 106
##                          Ragusa          72            0.22 107
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.2244  0.8680  1.9933  3.1400  4.8342 15.8961

Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Chieti         648       1.6805502         5.71           4.31
##  L'Aquila         238       0.7959041         0.00           0.14
##   Pescara        1215       3.8098643         2.10           3.56
##    Teramo         632       2.0516017         0.96           0.70

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Matera         181       0.9145617         2.26           1.32
##   Potenza         173       0.4740246         0.00           0.98

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Catanzaro         197       0.5497940         0.00           0.00
##             Cosenza         426       0.6036106         2.16           1.53
##             Crotone         117       0.6686478         0.00           0.00
##  Reggio di Calabria         247       0.4507225         1.65           0.82
##       Vibo Valentia          71       0.4435476         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Avellino         434       1.0375180         1.40           0.54
##  Benevento         170       0.6136785         0.00           0.00
##    Caserta         404       0.4377197         0.25           0.58
##     Napoli        2263       0.7335756         1.62           1.58
##    Salerno         641       0.5835161         1.26           1.83

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##            province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##             Bologna        3917        3.860562         1.35           1.55
##             Ferrara         833        2.409666         3.48           2.61
##        Forlì-Cesena        1454        3.684492         0.55           0.91
##              Modena        3472        4.922079         0.67           0.80
##               Parma        2973        6.582808         2.20           1.86
##            Piacenza        3533       12.303588         2.11           1.60
##             Ravenna         941        2.416191         0.43           0.54
##  Reggio nell'Emilia        4437        8.341935         1.56           0.91
##              Rimini        1874        5.527746         1.19           1.02

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##    Gorizia         149        1.068844         4.20           4.12
##  Pordenone         599        1.916598         0.00           0.45
##    Trieste        1136        4.844494         0.98           0.84
##      Udine         929        1.756838         0.87           0.69

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Frosinone         542       1.1081964         1.69           1.33
##     Latina         451       0.7840015         0.00           0.67
##      Rieti         282       1.8134698         0.36           0.24
##       Roma        4257       0.9803759         1.62           1.41
##    Viterbo         357       1.1260764         0.56           0.76

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##   province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##     Genova        3937        4.680330         2.13           2.04
##    Imperia        1186        5.546203         2.60           1.87
##  La Spezia         793        3.611835         0.63           1.12
##     Savona         997        3.611481         3.85           2.49

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                Bergamo       10848        9.732727         0.56           0.49
##                Brescia       12178        9.619623         0.83           0.64
##                   Como        2681        4.474269         3.43           2.52
##                Cremona        5706       15.896143         1.15           1.75
##                  Lecco        2109        6.251112         0.76           0.59
##                   Lodi        2787       12.106969         1.31           0.77
##                Mantova        2977        7.220611         1.50           0.82
##                 Milano       17000        5.230262         2.91           2.42
##  Monza e della Brianza        4253        4.866495         1.00           1.25
##                  Pavia        3798        6.957471         2.51           1.97
##                Sondrio        1012        5.588227         4.76           1.92
##                 Varese        2302        2.584287         2.27           2.18

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Ancona        1764        3.743411         0.23           0.88
##    Ascoli Piceno         273        1.317701         0.74           0.25
##            Fermo         399        2.295742         1.01           1.29
##         Macerata         946        3.011032         1.50           1.15
##  Pesaro e Urbino        2366        6.592623         0.81           0.77

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##    province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Campobasso         215       0.9718041         0.94           0.63
##     Isernia          51       0.6044158         0.00           0.66

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##              province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Alessandria        3008        7.140077         3.76           2.63
##                  Asti        1255        5.847054         3.55           5.66
##                Biella         833        4.744141         3.09           2.08
##                 Cuneo        2184        3.719992         2.78           2.08
##                Novara        2123        5.753107         4.68           2.23
##                Torino       11024        4.878906         3.90           2.81
##  Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         951        6.005722         0.63           0.57
##              Vercelli        1013        5.927061         2.43           1.28

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##               province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                   Bari        1188       0.9488863         2.41           2.29
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         358       0.9179228         5.92           2.24
##               Brindisi         512       1.3028819         1.39           1.82
##                 Foggia         933       1.4995588         4.13           3.07
##                  Lecce         461       0.5797765         1.99           0.73
##                Taranto         249       0.4317250         2.05           0.96

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##      province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Cagliari         228       0.5289557         0.88           1.66
##         Nuoro          74       0.3548310         0.00           0.00
##      Oristano          52       0.3297254         0.00           7.38
##       Sassari         804       1.6355725         0.75           0.33
##  Sud Sardegna          89       0.2537601         3.49           1.15

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Agrigento         132       0.3035390         0.00           0.00
##  Caltanissetta         141       0.5372288         2.17           0.72
##        Catania         886       0.7998541         4.11           4.21
##           Enna         378       2.2938563         0.27           0.53
##        Messina         515       0.8215341         0.39           1.74
##        Palermo         427       0.3408942         1.18           0.79
##         Ragusa          72       0.2243739         2.86           1.43
##       Siracusa         197       0.4934573         0.00           2.68
##        Trapani         135       0.3135947         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##       province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Arezzo         587        1.713098         1.21           1.70
##        Firenze        2760        2.729028         2.07           1.89
##       Grosseto         389        1.755185         0.78           0.78
##        Livorno         494        1.475367         0.41           0.34
##          Lucca        1221        3.147913         0.49           0.66
##  Massa-Carrara         957        4.910765         0.10           0.85
##           Pisa         818        1.952095         0.86           1.69
##        Pistoia         583        1.993346         1.39           1.53
##          Prato         479        1.858635         1.27           0.92
##          Siena         412        1.541933         0.24           0.57

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##         province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Bolzano / Bozen        2416        4.548381         0.25           0.50
##           Trento        3646        6.738151         0.89           1.06

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Perugia         981        1.494557         0.41            0.2
##     Terni         331        1.466984         0.00            0.3

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##                        province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1095        8.713574         0.18
##  three_day_rate
##            0.21

## [1] "2020-04-22"
##  province total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##   Belluno         979        4.823848         1.24           4.58
##    Padova        3751        3.999326         0.81           0.76
##    Rovigo         400        1.702584         8.40           9.34
##   Treviso        2386        2.687524         1.49           1.01
##   Venezia        2279        2.670689         4.02           2.07
##    Verona        4164        4.494348         2.31           1.57
##   Vicenza        2433        2.821138         1.80           1.32